What is the crowd actually betting will happen in quantum computing? Kalshi and Polymarket are real-money prediction markets where contract prices double as live probability estimates. We track a curated set of quantum-relevant markets here purely to show what they're pricing — not to encourage betting. Odds refresh every few hours.
Resolves YES for a given year if a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption via Shor’s algorithm, or accurately simulates the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme, before that year begins.
Part of a larger Polymarket event tracking potential federal equity stakes across strategic companies (CHIPS Act-style deals). Resolves by year end.
Part of a larger Polymarket event tracking potential federal equity stakes across strategic companies (CHIPS Act-style deals). Resolves by year end.
Part of a larger Polymarket event tracking potential federal equity stakes across strategic companies (CHIPS Act-style deals). Resolves by year end.
Two year-end sub-markets betting on whether a quantum computer breaks Bitcoin’s cryptography (i.e. derives a private key from a public key) before the given date.
Tracks whether Bitcoin ships a post-quantum-cryptography upgrade before the end of 2026.
The highest-volume quantum-adjacent market tracked here — bets on whether Bitcoin migrates away from its current (pre-quantum) hashing algorithm before 2027.
Tracks whether BIP-360, Bitcoin's proposed Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type for reducing long-exposure quantum risk, is implemented by the end of 2026.
Odds sourced live from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public APIs, refreshed roughly every 4 hours. Quantum Market Cap does not operate, endorse, or facilitate trading on either platform — this page exists purely to show what these markets are currently pricing. Not financial advice.
Vote by market open (9:30 AM ET), Fri, Oct 9. Resolves at NYSE close, Fri, Oct 9.
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| Stock | Price | Shares | Market Cap | Day Change | Mcap Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ IonQ | $39.45 | 381.0M | $15.03B | -4.57% | -$720.17M |
| QNT Quantinuum | $41.52 | 262.9M | $10.92B | -6.11% | -$709.85M |
| QBTS D-Wave Quantum | $14.60 | 372.0M | $5.43B | -4.07% | -$230.65M |
| RGTI Rigetti Computing | $14.14 | 333.7M | $4.72B | -3.08% | -$150.15M |
| INFQ Infleqtion | $11.16 | 224.7M | $2.51B | -4.12% | -$107.85M |
| QUBT Quantum Computing Inc | $7.45 | 226.3M | $1.69B | -2.23% | -$38.48M |
| IQMX IQM Quantum Computers | $10.17 | 159.8M | $1.62B | -2.68% | -$44.73M |
| PSQL Pasqal | $7.18 | 212.3M | $1.52B | -1.10% | -$16.98M |
| XNDU Xanadu | $4.12 | 304.2M | $1.25B | -8.24% | -$112.56M |
| HQ Horizon Quantum | $16.31 | 54.0M | $880.28M | +0.99% | $8.64M |
| BTQ BTQ Technologies | $2.79 | 144.6M | $403.31M | -9.42% | -$41.92M |
| ARQQ Arqit Quantum | $18.43 | 16.6M | $305.59M | -18.27% | -$68.31M |
| QSI Quantum-Si | $1.22 | 217.8M | $265.67M | -4.69% | -$13.07M |
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a real-money exchange where traders buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Contract prices move between $0 and $1 and are widely read as an implied probability — e.g. a contract trading at $0.30 implies the market sees roughly a 30% chance of that outcome.
Can I place a bet through Quantum Market Cap?
No. This page does not host, operate, or facilitate any wagering. It simply displays live odds already public on Kalshi and Polymarket, so quantum computing investors can see what those markets are pricing without leaving this site.
How often are these odds updated?
A background job refreshes every tracked market from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public APIs roughly every 4 hours. The "Resolves" date shown per market is each platform's own settlement deadline.
How is this list curated?
We track a hand-picked set of markets directly relevant to the quantum computing sector — timelines for a "useful" quantum computer, potential US government equity stakes in IonQ/D-Wave/Rigetti, and quantum-vs-cryptography milestones. The list is reviewed periodically for new markets and for ones that have expired or resolved.
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